PROBABILITES OF DALAL STREET ON 05th JULY 2024

Dear market Participants, 1^st week of July going well in favour of the bulls. Nifty closed in the green for 9^th straight trading session. Now aim for bulls to reach 24500 followed by 25000. Here we have to observe a few things before taking fresh positions.

FII bought 3.92 Laksh index future and in options, they have bought 4.67L calls and 2.9L puts so they are net bullish.
DII sold 62806 index futures and in options, they bought 2.36L putts and 2078 calls, only this indicates they are bearish.
Clients are bearish in both index future and option.
If we look at the global market today because of US Independence Day US markets are closed.

Europe markets are bullish and Asian markets are also indicating slight bullish.

The volatility index fell 2.65%, which closed at 12.86. So ATM IV is also negative.
In commodity sections, Gold and crude oil are slightly positive.
Technically if we look at markets as per Fibonacci retracement 23847 is strong support and 24703 is strong resistance in the weekly time frame.
For intraday traders as per open interest, 24200 acts as support, and 24400 is a resistance.

So we can say that if market breaks 24200 support the probabilities of downward movement about 100 to 150 ponts is higher. Same as markets break resistance 24400 next it may reach 24500. After 9 continuous days of bull market, it has high probabilities to consolidate between 24200 to 24400.

-By

A Ganesh R Bhat