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Key Summary – Ceat Ltd. Q1FY25 Concall

Financial Performance

-Revenue: INR 3,192.8 crores, 8.8% YoY growth.

– Standalone profit: INR 149.2 crores, 6.4% YoY decline.

– Gross margin contraction: 184 bps YoY, 306 bps QoQ.

– EBITDA: INR 388.2 crores, 12.2% margin, 130 bps. contraction

Pricing and Cost

– Raw material costs up 5% QoQ, natural rubber at INR 207/kg.

– Price hikes: 2.3% in commercial, 2.5-3% in passenger segment.

– 1% price increase in 2-wheelers, further hikes planned.

Volume Growth

– Overall volume growth: 8.7% YoY.

– Replacement segment: Double-digit growth.

– OEM segment: Slower growth due to capacity constraints.

International Business

– Export growth: Healthy, not exceeding 20% YoY.

-Key markets: LATAM, Europe, emerging US market.

– Agri radials show strong growth in low base markets.

Operational Updates

– Highest production in Chennai, Bhandup, Halol plants.

– Capacity sold out in TBR, new Chennai TBR capacity upcoming.

– 42+ off-highway SKUs, 30+ passenger SKUs launched.

Investment and R&D

– Capex: INR 254 crores in Q1, full year INR 1,000 crores.

– Investment in digital and supply chain enhancements.

– Increased marketing spend in key media properties.

Debt and Financial Ratios

– Consolidated debt: INR 1,647 crores, up INR 18 crores QoQ.

– Debt to EBITDA: 1.1, Debt to equity: 0.4.

– Consolidated profit after tax: INR 154 crores.

EPR Provision

– EPR provision included, not part of raw material costs.

– Guidance: 1.3% to 1.5% of revenue, subject to future clarity.

Price Hikes and Market Position

– Commercial segment: ~2.3% to 2.4% price increase.

– Passenger segment: ~2.5% to 2.8% price increase.

– 2-3-wheeler segment: ~1% price increase. – Further 2% to 3% price hikes anticipated in coming months.

– Market leader in TBR did not raise prices in Q1.

– Market leader in 2-3-wheeler segment also did not hike prices.

– CEAT’s pricing is competitive but lower than some leaders.

Raw Material Costs

– Expected 5% to 6% increase in RM costs for Q2.

– Natural rubber prices: INR 165 (beginning) to INR 207 (current).

– Freight rates have increased significantly, impacting costs.

– Crude prices ranged between $80 and $90 in Q1.

Raw Material Costs

– Expected 5% to 6% increase in RM costs for Q2.

– Natural rubber prices: INR 165 (beginning) to INR 207 (current).

– Freight rates have increased significantly, impacting costs.

– Crude prices ranged between $80 and $90 in Q1.

Employee and Marketing Costs

– Employee costs declined sequentially due to variable elements.

– Marketing spend up by 100 basis points for IPL and World Cup.

Distribution and R&D

– Local distributors are used in U.S. and Europe markets.

– R&D focuses on domestic and international markets with tailored strategies.

– CEAT’s R&D investments aim to enhance domestic market share.

Pricing Strategies and Competition.
– CEAT’s pricing in 2-3-wheelers is 2% to 4% higher than competitors.
– Truck-bus radial pricing is lower compared to market leaders.

– Pricing adjustments will be opportunistic and region-specific.

                                            
                                                                         -source(Bazaar. Update)



Disclaimer

27/07/2024 /0 Comments/by
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DERIVATIVE SEGMENT – 13

USES OF OPTIONS

PERSPECTIVES OF OPTION TRADERS –

An important decision that a trader needs to make in which option he should trade – in the money, at the money, or out of the money. 

Among other things, a trader must also consider the premium of these three options in order to make an educated decision. There are two components in the option premium . 

Intrinsic value and time value .If the option is deeply in the money , the intrinsic value will be higher and so is the option value/premium. In case of at the money or out of the money options there is no intrinsic value but only time value. Hence , these options remain cheaper compared to in the money options . Therefore, option buyer pays higher premium for in the money option compared to at the money or out of the money options and thus, the cost factors largely influences the decision of an option buyers.

     For, ATM options, the uncertainty is highest as compared to ITM OR OTM options. This is because we known that when an option is ITM OR ATM, even if the price moves somewhat, in any direction, still the option will largely remain ITM OR OTM as the case may be.

But in case of ATM options even a small price movement in either direction can tip the option from ATM to  ITM or OTM. There is a huge uncertainty here and this uncertainty is a function of time to expiry and volatility of the underlying, both of which are captured in the time value.

 

                                                                    BY – GOWRISH R BHAT.



Click here to read - DERIVATIVE SEGMENT 12

26/07/2024 /1 Comment/by
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DERIVATIVE SEGMENT – 12

OPTION GREEKS

  • DELTA: The most important of the Greeks is the option’s delta . this measure the sensitivity of the option value to a given small change in the price of the underlying asset . it may also be seen as the speed with which an option moves with respect to price of the underlying asset . delta = change in option premium/ unit change in price of the underlying asset .
  • GAMMA : It measures change in delta with respect to change in price of the underlying asset . this is called a second derivative option with regard to price of the underlying asset. It is calculated as the ratio of change in delta for a unit change in market price of the underlying asset . GAMMA = change in an option delta/unit change in price of underlying asset.
  • THETA : It is measure of an option sensitivity to time decay . theta is the change in option price given a one –day decrease in time to expiration . it is a measure of time decay. Theta is generally used to gain an idea of how rime decay is affecting your option positions. THETA= change in an option premium/ change in time to expiry.

  • VEGA : This is a measure of the sensitivity of an option price to changes in market volatility . it is the change of an option premium for a given change in the underlying volatility . VEGA= change in an option premium/change in volatility.
  • RHO : Rho is the change in option price given a one percentage point change in the risk – free interest rate . rho measures the change in an option price per unit increase in the cost of funding the underlying .

RHO = change in an option premium/change in cost of funding the underlying .

                                                                                 Source by

                                                                             A Gowrish R Bhat

25/07/2024 /1 Comment/by
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PROBABILITES OF DALAL STREET ON  26th   JULY 2024

Dear market participants,  nifty took strong support at 24200 , 200points recovery from today’s low and closed at 24,406. For next trading session we have to look for following points.

  • FII’s bought 62,416 index future and in options they bought  47Lso they are bullish  l in derivatives. In stock  they sold 2605cr so indicating bearish  .
  • DII’s sold 78,669 index future and in options they sold 2.95L. in stock they bought 2,432 Cr
  • Clients are medium bullish  in  future and in options they are indecisive.
  • If we look at Global markets, US markets are positive , European  markets are bearish  and Asian markets   are also negative
  • Volatility index rose  27% , that closed at 12.62 .   
  • As per open interest nifty has 24300 followed by 24200 and also 24000 has highest put writer . there is call writer at 24500 followed by 24600.

This month nifty closed above 24000 and below 24500. For next month these two levels act as main points . for intraday 24200 will be act as strong support and in upside 24500 as resistance after today’s sessions probability of downtrend from this level in low but fed interest rate decision will be there on 31st July up to that if any stock specific news  may affect the market.

                                                                                     -By

                                                                         A Ganesh R Bhat



DISCLAIMER

25/07/2024 /0 Comments/by
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Quarterly results of AU SFB, HOME FIRST FIN,RAMCO CEMENT and many

AU Small Finance Bank

  • Net profit at ₹502.6 cr vs CNBC-TV18 poll of ₹462.5 cr
  • NII at ₹1,920.5 cr vs CNBC-TV18 poll of ₹1,836.8 cr
  • Gross NPA at ₹1,613.2 cr vs ₹1,237.4 cr (QoQ)
  • Net NPA at ₹562.6 cr vs ₹401 cr (QoQ)
  • Gross NPA at 1.78% vs 1.67% (QoQ)
  • Net NPA at 0.63% vs 0.55% (QoQ)
  • NIM at 6% vs 5.1% (QoQ)
  • AU SMALL FINANCE BANK: CO TO APPLY TO RBI FOR TRANSITION FROM SMALL FINANCE BANK TO UNIVERSAL BANK

HOME FIRST FIN

  • NET PROFIT UP 27% AT 87.7 CR (YOY) V UP 5% (QOQ)
  • NII UP 18% AT 147 CR (YOY) V UP 7% (QOQ)
  • OPERATING PROFIT UP 4.9% AT 1190 CR (QOQ)
  •  GROSS NPA AT 1.7% V 1.7% (QOQ) 
  • DISBURSEMENT UP 5.5% AT 11762 CR (QOQ) 
  • AUM UP 8% AT 10478 CR (QOQ) 
  • ROA AT 3.6% V 3.6% (QOQ)
  •  NIMS 5.3% V 5.3% (QOQ)
  •  CREDIT COST 0.2% V 0.1% (QOQ)

RAMCO CEMENT

  • NET PROFIT DOWN 55% AT 35.5 CR (YOY), DOWN 71% (QOQ)
  • REVENUE DOWN 7% AT 2088 CR (YOY) ,DOWN 22% (QOQ) 
  • EBITDA DOWN 6% AT 319.7CR (YOY),DOWN 23%(QOQ) 
  • MARGINS 15.3% V 15.1% (YOY), 15.6% (QOQ)

MOTILAL OSWAL FIN SVCS

  • NET PROFIT UP 68% AT 883.6CR (YOY), UP 22% (QOQ) 
  • REVENUE UP 54% AT 2312CR (YOY) ,UP 7% (QOQ) 
  • EBITDA UP 66% AT 1392CR (YOY),UP 12%(QOQ) 
  • MARGINS 60.22% V 55.7% (YOY), 57.5% (QOQ)



DISCLAIMER

25/07/2024 /0 Comments/by
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Quarterly results announced on 25/02/2024

NESTLE INDIA Q1

NET PROFIT-  7.5B RUPEES VS 6.9B (YOY); EST 8.15B

REVENUE-  48.1B RUPEES VS 46.6B (YOY); EST 50.75B 

EBITDA- 11.14B RUPEES VS 10.56B (YOY);EST 12.05B

EBITDA MARGIN- 23.15% VS 22.66% (YOY); EST 23.7%

ASHOK LEYLAND Q1

NET PROFIT AT 525 CR V 576 CR (YOY)

REVENUE AT 8598 CR V 8189 CR

EBITDA AT 910 CR V 821 CR(QOQ)

MARGINS AT 10.6 % V 10.02 %

ASHOK LEYLAND;; Resignation of Mr Dr. C Bhaktavatsala Rao as Non- Executive Director of the company w.e.f. July 31, 2024

 

  • Co. Says Ashok Leyland’s domestic MHCV volume grew by 8% and market share was at 30.7%. The bus market share was significantly up at 33.3%. 
  • The Company’s domestic LCV volume in Q1 FY’25 was 15345 units, 4% higher than Q1 of last year (14821 units). The Company’s Export volume in Q1 FY’25 was 2324 units, 5% higher than Q1 of last year (2222 units).
  •  EBITDA is up at 10.6% for Q1 FY25 (Rs. 911 Cr) as against 10.0% (Rs. 821 Cr) in Q1 of previous year. Net Debt to Equity ratio stood at 0.1 at the end of Q1’FY25. 
  • The Company continued to see strong demand in all its business units. 
  • While the Company achieved its highest ever Q1 CV volumes, the Power Solutions, Aftermarket, Defence business and the International Operations also contributed strongly to the top line. The efforts on product and network expansion helped the uptick in revenue and market share.

CANARA BANK Q1

  • Canara Bank reported a Net Interest Income (NII) of Rs 9,166 crore. The net interest earned increased by 14.8%, reaching Rs 28,701.35 crore in Q1FY24, compared to Rs 25,004.07 crore during the same period in the previous fiscal year.
  • Canara Bank on Thursday recorded fiscal first quarter earnings with standalone profit at Rs 3,905.28 crore, up 10.5 per cent in comparison to Rs 3,534.84 crore recorded during the corresponding quarter of previous financial year, missing estimates. 
  • The net interest earned was at Rs 28,701.35 crore, up 14.8 per cent as against Rs 25,004.07 crore during Q1FY24. The Bank recorded Net Interest Income (NII) at Rs 9,166 crore.
  • On a consolidated basis, Q1 profit was at Rs 3,977.22 crore, up 11.3 per cent as against Rs 3,573.50 crore during the same period last year. 



DISCLAIMER

25/07/2024 /0 Comments/by
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Clinitech Laboratory Limited SME IPO

Clinitech Laboratory Limited IPO will be open for subscription from 25-jul-2024 to 27-jul-2024.

Here is a brief information about the company and IPO.

Application start– 25-07-2024
 
Application end– 29-07-2024
 
Allotment begins– 30-07-2024
 
Refund Initiation– 31-07-2024
 
Allotment date– 31-07-2024
 
Listing on exchange– 01-08-2024

About Clinitech Laboratory Limited

About Clinitech Laboratory Limited

Founded in 1990, Clinitech Laboratory Limited operates a network of eight diagnostic centers strategically located in Thane and Navi Mumbai, offering a comprehensive range of diagnostic and healthcare tests. Annually, they conduct more than 3 lakh tests in their NABL (National Accreditation Board for Testing and Calibration Laboratories) accredited labs, equipped with advanced technology and high-end equipment. These tests span across various disciplines including Biochemistry, Immunology, Hematology, Molecular Biology, Serology, Microbiology, and Histopathology, enabling precise diagnosis and effective treatment planning.

Clinical pathology forms the core of their services, focusing on the analysis of bodily fluids and tissues to diagnose diseases and conditions. Their laboratories perform crucial tests such as blood tests, urine analysis, and tissue biopsies, which are essential in understanding the underlying causes of symptoms and guiding healthcare decisions. Their team of clinical pathologists plays a pivotal role in interpreting test results and providing valuable insights to aid in patient care.

Looking ahead, they anticipate potential competition from new entrants with established business networks, posing threats to their market share. Such competitors may leverage larger financial resources for enhanced marketing and service delivery capabilities. Despite these challenges, Clinictech Laboratory Limited is poised to uphold its leadership in diagnostic and healthcare services through strategic management practices, technological innovation, and a steadfast commitment to meeting the evolving needs of their clientele.

As Clinitech Laboratory Limited prepares for its Initial Public Offering (IPO), the proceeds from the Fresh Issue will be allocated towards critical objectives:

  1. Expansion of Diagnostic Centres; 
  2. General Corporate Purposes 

Total Offer Size- 6,02,400 Equity Shares at the Offer Price of ₹ 96 each aggregating ₹ 578.30 Lakhs.

Fresh Issue Size- 6,02,400 Equity Shares at the Offer Price of ₹ 96 each aggregating ₹578.30 Lakhs 

24/07/2024 /0 Comments/by
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DERIVATIVE SEGMENT – 11

BASICS OF OPTION PRICING

THERE ARE FIVE FUNDAMENTAL PARAMETERS FOR OPTION PRICING MODEL

  • SPOT PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING ASSET – The option premium is affected by the price movements in the underlying instrument . If price of the underlying asset goes up the value of the call option increase while the value of the put option decrease, vice-versa ..
  • STRIKE PRICE – If all the others factors remain constant but the strike price of option increases , intrinsic value of the call option will decrease and hence its value also decrease . on the other hand , with all the other factors remaining constant , increase in strike price of option increases the intrinsic value of the put option which in turn increases its option value.
  • VOLATILITY – It is the magnitude of movement in the underlying assets price , either up or down . It affects both call and put options in the same way . Higher the volatility of the underlying stock, higher the premium because there is greater possibility that the option will move – in – the – money during the life of the contract.

  • TIME TO EXPIRATION – The effect of time to expiration on both call and put options is similar to that of volatility on option premiums . generally , longer the maturity of the option greater is the uncertainty and hence the higher premiums . If all other factors affecting an option’s price remain same , the time value portion of an option’s premium will decreases with the passage of time . This is also known as time decay . Options are known as ‘wasting assets ‘ , due to this property where the time value gradually falls zero
  • INTEREST RATES – Interest rates are slightly complicated because they different options, differently. For example, interest rates have a greater impact on options with individuals stocks and indices compared to options on futures . To put it in simple way high interest rates will result in an increase in the value of call option and a decrease in the value of a put option.

                                                                                                Sourced  by

                                                                                        GOWRISH R BHAT .

24/07/2024 /0 Comments/by
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PROBABILITES OF DALAL STREET ON 25th JULY 2024

Dear market participants,  Nifty fell 0.27% , closed at 24413. tomorrow there is  monthly expiry for nifty. so we must look following data for an intraday trades.

  • FII’s bought 2.4 lakhs index future and in options they sold  1.08L so they are bearish l in derivatives. In stock  they sold 5,131 cr so indicating bearish .
  • DII’s sold 76,479 index future and in options they sold 3.85L. in stock they bought 3,137cr.
  • Clients are Indecisive in  future and in options they are bullish.
  • If we look at Global markets, US markets are very bearish  , European  markets  and Asian markets   are also negative
  • Volatility index fell  7.73% , that closed at 11.76.
  • As per open interest nifty has 24300 followed by 24000 has highest put writer . there is call writer at 24500 followed by 24600.

Because of monthly expiry tomorrow there will be volatility in nifty. For expiry trade important points are 24300 as support level and 24500 as resistance. If markets breaks support level it has high probability to move up to 24100 followed by 24000. If nifty breaks resistance then next hurdle in upside is 24666 . chance of consolidate between 24300 to 24600 is less on tomorrow’s trading session.

                                                                                    -By

                                                                          A Ganesh R Bhat



Disclaimer

24/07/2024 /0 Comments/by
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PROBABILITES OF DALAL STREET ON 24th JULY 2024

Dear market participants , today as usual on union budget market would be very volatile, so nifty was very volatile. Now budget got over uncertainty about taxations and all clear now. So, now we have to consider few points for next trading day.

  • FII’s bought 2.83 lakhs index future and in options they sold  89,287 so they are bearish l in derivatives. In stock  they sold 2975cr so indicating bearish.
  • DII’s sold 78,322 index future and in options they sold 3.83L. in stock they bought 1419cr.
  • Clients are bullish in future and in options too.
  • If we look at Global markets, US markets are medium  bullish, Europe markets are negative and Asian markets are mixed 
  • Volatility index fell  43%, that closed at 12.75. because big event got over so it fell most today.   
  • As per open interest nifty has 24100 followed by 24000 has highest put writer, there is call writer at 24600.

On today’s budget long term and short term capital gain tax increased and STT for F&O segment also hiked. so this is negative for market but it nifty recovered from day low that is 24091. so, 24100 will act as strong support and 24666 will be resistance. for next trading session probability of consolidation between these two level is high. If any of this level breaks. There is chance of trend continuation on same side. 

                                                                                   -By

                                                                         A Ganesh R Bhat



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23/07/2024 /0 Comments/by